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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.