🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."