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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues

Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning document claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018

All of which returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger and A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.